The race to the finals is heating up, with 13 teams still in the hunt to feature in this year’s action.
There could be three first-time finalists this season, with Hawthorn, St Kilda and Port Adelaide all pushing their cases for a maiden berth.
It looks as though the battle for the top four will also go down to the wire as a handful of sides hunt a double chance.
1. North Melbourne
30 points (seven wins, one draw), 313.1 per cent
The Kangaroos are firing on all cylinders in 2024 as they look to atone for last season’s Grand Final heartbreak. The Roos have had a near-perfect season this campaign, with a draw against Geelong the only blip on the radar for Darren Crocker’s side. The Roos would have to be favourites to be minor premiers this season, with a crunch clash against Adelaide in round nine seemingly the biggest obstacle. Either way, they’re highly likely to lock in a top four berth which gives them every opportunity to claim that elusive premiership.
2. Hawthorn
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 190.6 per cent
These record-breaking Hawks have been the huge risers in 2024, and the sky is the limit for Daniel Webster’s troops. The Hawks have put themselves in prime position to secure a top four spot, having lost just one match so far this campaign – with three winnable fixtures to come. Can they maintain the rage? All signs say yes, but a clash against the Tigers in the final round could decide whether they get a double chance or not.
3. Brisbane
28 points (seven wins, one loss), 180.6 per cent
Last year’s reigning premiers look highly likely to secure yet another top four berth after another strong campaign. After being belted off the park by the Kangaroos in round one, Craig Starcevich’s side have put to bed any questions of a premiership hangover with seven consecutive wins. Their toughest fixture on the run home comes against St Kilda in the final round of the year, as the Saints could be fighting for a place in the finals. Expect them to lock away a top four berth and push hard to become the first AFLW side to win back-to-back premierships.
4. Adelaide
24 points (six wins, two losses), 183.7 per cent
The Crows have been one of the most consistent AFLW sides throughout history and 2024 has been no different. Despite a slip-up against the Dees during the mid-week footy period, the Crows came out breathing fire against the Giants on the weekend with an emphatic 64-point victory, sending a strong message to the rest of the competition. The Crows should bank wins against Collingwood and Geelong on the run home, but the match against the Kangaroos in round nine looms as a crucial clash for their top four chances. Positively, their percentage is really healthy, which means they could secure that spot even if they lose that match.
5. Richmond
24 points (six wins, two losses), 171.2 per cent
After a poor 2023 campaign, Ryan Ferguson’s side have pushed themselves back into top four contention this season. It’s not out of the question that the Tigers win all three of their remaining fixtures but equally, they could lose all three as well. Having said that, their healthy percentage will hold them in good stead in the final three weeks of the season and means they can probably afford to drop a game or two and still make it. The clash against Hawthorn in round 10 could be for a place in the top four.
6. Fremantle
20 points (five wins, three losses), 116.7 per cent
The Dockers look destined to feature in finals action for the first time since season six after a strong 2024 campaign. They’ve faltered in recent weeks against Carlton and Hawthorn, but a strong start to the season means the platform was already laid for a finals push. The Dockers take on cross-town rival West Coast this weekend before fixtures against bottom four sides the Giants and Dogs in the last fortnight. It’s highly likely that Lisa Webb’s side win all three remaining games, which makes them a smokey for a top four berth.
7. Essendon
20 points (five wins, three losses), 113.6 per cent
The Bombers face a rocky run home and as a result, their finals hopes hang in the balance. Despite winning their past four games on the trot, a tough start to the year could ultimately come back to bite the Bombers in 2024. They’ve got a tricky fixture against the red-hot Kangaroos this week, but then take on the Tigers and Blues in the final fortnight. They’ll go in favourites against the Blues but will likely have to pinch a victory against Richmond if they’re to feature in the finals for a second consecutive year under coach Natalie Wood.
8. St Kilda
16 points (four wins, four losses), 110.6 per cent
The Saints are well and truly stuck in the logjam of sides fighting it out for a place in the bottom half of the top eight. This week’s trip to Adelaide to take on the Power looms as a massive clash with huge ramifications on the finals race. A win and they’ll likely make it, but a loss might mean they’ve got to win big over the Bulldogs and pinch a win over the Lions in the last round (they did beat them last year). They missed out on finals last year by percentage, but Nick Dal Santo’s side are well poised to break their finals hoodoo this time around.
9. Port Adelaide
16 points (four wins, four losses), 106.4 per cent
The Power are currently sitting just out of the eight by percentage, but a favourable fixture on the run home means they could definitely secure a finals berth for the first time in their history. You’d expect Lauren Arnell’s side to win their final two matches against the Suns and Giants, which means this week’s test against St Kilda is a true eight-point game. They’ve won three consecutive games and are peaking at the right time.
10. West Coast
16 points (four wins, four losses), 74.7 per cent
It’s been a year of significant growth for the Eagles under new coach and AFLW trailblazer Daisy Pearce. Not only has Pearce got the Eagles back playing some great footy, there also seems to be a stronger belief among the playing group this season. Can the Daisy fairytale continue? It seems unlikely given their percentage, but if they can somehow nab their first ever Western Derby win this weekend, then a finals place could well and truly be alive.
11. Melbourne
16 points (four wins, four losses), 68.4 per cent
The Dees face an uphill battle to make the finals from here given their lean percentage. Mick Stinear’s side struggled in the early stages of the season as they were plagued by injuries, but have found some form in recent weeks defeating Adelaide and St Kilda in week seven. It looks as though they’ll have to take a scalp over the Tigers or Hawks if they’re any chance, plus secure a big win against the Pies in the final round of the season.
12. Carlton
12 points (three wins, five losses), 47.5 per cent
While it’s not inconceivable that the Blues win their final three matches of the season, their percentage is almost certain to stop them from featuring in finals action. Carlton have struggled to match it with the top sides this campaign, suffering heavy defeats at the hands of the Lions, Kangaroos and Hawks. If they win their next two matches as we expect, there’s a chance their season is still alive come that clash against the Bombers in round 10 (which will be tough), but it looks as though they’ll need a lot to go right to sneak into finals this time around.
13. Geelong
10 points (two wins, one draw, five losses), 100.9 per cent
It’s been a tough season for the Cats, who have really struggled with their accuracy in front of goal in 2024. As a result, they’re going to need a footy miracle to feature in what would be their third consecutive finals campaign. They’ll need to cause big upsets against two top four sides in Brisbane and Adelaide, plus bank a big win against the Eagles in round nine if they’re any chance of making it. They’re not mathematically out of the equation just yet, but it’s tough to see how it will happen.
